During the previous week, the US dollar, as indicated by the DXY index, experienced a slight decline, falling by approximately 0.10% to reach a level of 101.68.
This decline can be seen as a positive market sentiment, as equity markets rebounded. The strength of technology stocks, along with solid earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft and Meta Platforms, played a significant role in driving the overall market higher on Wall Street.
In the upcoming week, there are significant events that have the potential to further strengthen the slumping sentiment towards the US dollar.
Two particular events to look out for are the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday,3rd May and the release of the nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday, 6th May.
Beginning with the US central bank, it is widely anticipated that policymakers will implement a 25-basis points interest rate hike, bringing the rates to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%.
Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggested that their tightening measures were coming to an end, considering the increased risks to the economy caused by turmoil in the US banking sector, which heightened the possibility of a recession.
Should the Federal Reserve officially halt its tightening measures, it is probable that the US dollar will experience a decline?
Traders will likely try to anticipate the subsequent actions, which could potentially involve interest rate cuts. In contrast, other significant central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to continue raising interest rates a few more times throughout the year. This divergence in monetary policies is anticipated to work against the strength of the US dollar.
The primary focus for Wall Street on Friday will be the release of the US employment report. The data from March, which indicated the addition of 236,000 workers to the economy, potentially underestimated the impact of the banking sector crisis in the United States. However, the April report is expected to provide a more accurate outcome of these developments.
Considering this, there is a possibility that the results of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may fall short of expectations, failing to meet the estimated gain of 178,000 jobs
Conversely, an extremely poor employment report could have a positive impact on the US dollar, at least in the short term, as it would signal the possibility of a recession and lead to increased risk aversion among investors. During periods of market turbulence, the US dollar typically benefits due to its status as a safe-haven currency.
The US dollar, as reflected by the DXY index, has experienced a lack of clear direction in recent weeks. It has been flipping between support around the 100.80 level and resistance near 102.20.
As long as this trading range remains intact, the consolidation phase is likely to persist. However, if the DXY index manages to break out of this range, we could see an increase in volatility. A bullish breakout above the resistance at 102.20 would potentially pave the way for a rally towards the trendline resistance at 102.80. Conversely, a bearish breakdown below the support at 100.80 would expose the area around 99.40.
US DOLLAR (DXY) INDEX CHART
